market timing
Why Trying to Time the Market Costs You 40% of Your Returns
DALBAR's 2024 study: S&P 500 returned 9.65% annualized over 30 years. The average investor got 5.5%. The gap is entirely behavioral.
Investing, personal finance, wealth building
An educational resource for people who want to invest wisely—without unnecessary complexity or “secret strategies.” The site breaks down the mechanics of investing: index funds, dividend-paying stocks, tax optimization, retirement accounts, and real estate as an investment vehicle.
DCA
Dollar-Cost Averaging vs. Lump Sum Investing: What the Data Actually Shows
Vanguard studied 70 years of data: lump-sum beats DCA 68% of the time. It also loses badly the other 32%. Which matters more depends on why you're investing.
I-Bonds
I-Bonds vs. TIPS vs. Series EE: The Inflation Protection Decision
I-Bonds have an annual $10,000 limit. TIPS have no limit but track CPI differently. Series EE doubles in 20 years guaranteed. Each wins in one specific scenario.
bond ladder
Bond Ladders in a Rising Rate Environment: Build It Yourself
Ten Treasuries with maturities 1-10 years. As each matures, you reinvest at the current 10-year rate. Rates rise? You benefit. Rates fall? You already locked in.
60/40
The 60/40 Portfolio: Declared Dead in 2022, Alive Again in 2024
The worst 60/40 year in history was 2022: down 16%. Then 2023 returned 17%. The framework isn't broken — it just requires patience most don't have.
rebalancing
Rebalancing: When to Do It, When to Skip It
Quarterly rebalancing costs taxes and trading fees without improving returns. Annual rebalancing at 5% bands is the sweet spot the research actually supports.
asset allocation
Asset Allocation by Age: The 120-Minus-Age Rule Needs an Update
110 minus your age was the old rule. At 40 that's 70% stocks. With longer lifespans and lower bond yields, the right number for most is 85-90%.
Barista FIRE
Barista FIRE: Partial Retirement with Healthcare Subsidies
Work 20 hours per week for benefits, live on passive income the rest. It's not a sexy answer, but it solves the pre-65 healthcare cliff that kills most early retirement plans.
sequence risk
Sequence of Returns Risk: The Retirement Killer Hiding in Plain Sight
Two retirees with identical 7% average returns can end up with wildly different outcomes — just by the order the returns come in. Early losses are devastating.
FIRE
FI Number Math: How to Calculate What You Actually Need
25x annual expenses is the headline rule. For anyone retiring before 55, the real number is 30-33x. The difference is healthcare and sequence risk.
Coast FIRE
Coast FIRE: Stop Saving at 45, Retire at 60 Anyway
Hit $500,000 at 45 and you can stop contributing entirely. At 7% real return, that becomes $1.5 million at 65. The target number depends on your actual retirement spending.
4% rule
The 4% Rule: Is It Still Safe After 2022-2024
Bill Bengen's original 1994 study used historical data through 1992. After three down years, does $40,000 on $1 million still work? The data says yes, with one adjustment.