Gold, Silver, and Commodities: Do They Belong in a Real Portfolio
Gold returned 1.4% per year for 30 years. The S&P returned 10.6%. Gold's purpose isn't return — it's specific correlation behavior in a handful of bad decades.
An educational resource for people who want to invest wisely—without unnecessary complexity or “secret strategies.” The site breaks down the mechanics of investing: index funds, dividend-paying stocks, tax optimization, retirement accounts, and real estate as an investment vehicle.
Gold returned 1.4% per year for 30 years. The S&P returned 10.6%. Gold's purpose isn't return — it's specific correlation behavior in a handful of bad decades.
IBIT charges 0.12% and lives in your brokerage. Self-custody means a hardware wallet and being your own bank. Both have failure modes worth thinking through.
Bitcoin might go to $500,000 or $0 — the honest answer is nobody knows. At 1-5% of portfolio, either outcome is survivable. At 30%, the bad case is career-ending.
A 2022 study tracked investors who checked portfolios daily vs. quarterly. The daily checkers traded 4x more and earned 2% less annually. The news made them worse.
Loss aversion. Recency bias. Overconfidence. The psychology research identifies 17 biases that cost investors money. Most are impossible to see in yourself.
Miss the 10 best days in any 20-year window: your return drops 50%. Seven of those 10 best days happened within two weeks of the 10 worst. You can't selectively miss one.
DALBAR's 2024 study: S&P 500 returned 9.65% annualized over 30 years. The average investor got 5.5%. The gap is entirely behavioral.
Vanguard studied 70 years of data: lump-sum beats DCA 68% of the time. It also loses badly the other 32%. Which matters more depends on why you're investing.
I-Bonds have an annual $10,000 limit. TIPS have no limit but track CPI differently. Series EE doubles in 20 years guaranteed. Each wins in one specific scenario.
Ten Treasuries with maturities 1-10 years. As each matures, you reinvest at the current 10-year rate. Rates rise? You benefit. Rates fall? You already locked in.
The worst 60/40 year in history was 2022: down 16%. Then 2023 returned 17%. The framework isn't broken — it just requires patience most don't have.
Quarterly rebalancing costs taxes and trading fees without improving returns. Annual rebalancing at 5% bands is the sweet spot the research actually supports.